domingo, 30 de setembro de 2012

Security Information

MOZAMBIQUE


Conflict History

Until 1992, almost the entire history of independent Mozambique was marked by war. After the 1974 coup in Portugal, Mozambican nationalists moved swiftly to claim independence, suppressing an attempted right-wing rebellion which led to the departure of nearly all the 250 000 white colonists, who returned to Portugal or South Africa, leaving the country in economic crisis.
The liberation movement, the Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique (Frelimo), led by the charismatic Samora Machel, took power on independence in June 1975, declaring a ‘people’s republic’ and pursuing Marxist-Leninist policies with the support of the Soviet Union, the German Democratic Republic and Cuba (although relations with most western countries were normalised some five or six years later).
The new government also offered bases to guerrillas of the Zimbabwe African National Union (Zanu) which was opposing white minority rule in the then Rhodesia, opening up a long border for military operations which within a few years led to the capitulation of the minority regime there. The Rhodesian regime responded by launching attacks on bases and refugee camps, and sponsoring a Mozambique rebel movement, the Resistencia Nacional de Mocambique (Renamo), which rapidly became characterised by extreme brutality. Mozambique adopted a much more cautious approach to apartheid South Africa, however, and its support for the South African liberation movement was limited. Nevertheless, South Africa rapidly stepped up covert military support for Renamo after the fall of white Rhodesia, and by exploiting local, regional, ethnic and traditional grievances as well as by waging a campaign of terror, Renamo spread the civil war to most parts of the country by the mid-1980s.
Zimbabwe entered the conflict, deploying 10 000 troops against Renamo, and Tanzania also offered military support. In 1984, in an effort to end the increasingly ruinous conflict, Machel signed a security pact with South Africa known as the Nkomati Accord. He also began a process of economic and political liberalisation. However, the war continued, and Machel was killed in aircraft crash in South African territory in October 1986, in circumstances which have still not been resolved– many analysts believe the craft was brought down by South African signal subterfuge. He was replaced by Joaquim Chissano, then the foreign minister, who continued his liberalisation programme.
In July 1989, partly in order to seek an agreement with Renamo, Frelimo abandoned Marxism-Leninism. A new multi-party constitution was introduced in November 1990, while talks continued in Rome with Renamo under international supervision. In the course of 1992 a series of agreements were reached to provide for a ceasefire, electoral preparations, the election of a new national assembly, the deployment of UN peacekeepers and the formation of a new national army. The final peace agreement was signed in Rome in October, and the United Nations’ Operation in Mozambique (UNOMOZ) began in the first half of 1993, thus ending a 16-year conflict which had taken tens of thousands of lives, led to the internal displacement of three million people and enormous infrastructural damage and turned 1.7 million Mozambicans into refugees in neighbouring countries, mostly in Malawi.
Despite repeated political and security crises, national legislative and presidential elections were held peacefully in October 1994, in which Frelimo gained a small majority in the national assembly, and Chissano was returned as president with a clear majority. Local elections, held in May 1998, and the legislative and presidential elections of 1999, demonstrated that Frelimo still had a popular mandate to rule, although Renamo continues to dominate in most of the northern and western provinces.

Security Situation

Commonly described as a‘failed state’ in the early 1990s, Mozambique has made remarkable progress in restoring stability and security in the country, although massive socio-economic problems remain a legacy of the war.
While Government-Renamo relations remain tense, and there have been occasional flare-ups of civil conflict, peace has been restored to the entire country. Most refugees have returned, demobilisation has been achieved, although demobilised combatants have in some cases remained a security threat of one sort or another, and a group of disaffected Renamo, self-styled Chimwenje rebels, took to bandity. Mozambique has built good relations with all its neighbours and with the international community (including, somewhat unprecedentedly, joining the Commonwealth in 1995) and had developed particularly good security co-operation with South Africa, working with that country to control the border, which remains a transit point for international criminal syndicates and arms smugglers.
Nevertheless, the country is increasingly polarised between the north and the west, where Renamo is dominant (except now in the far north). Renamo disputed the results of the 1999 election, and tensions led to riots and demonstrations in November, leading to 40 deaths, while another 80 detainees died in an overcrowded police cell, apparently of suffocation. By early 2001 it appeared that the crisis was over and both sides recommitted themselves to national reconciliation, but the incident underline the potential for civil conflict in the event of disputed elections. Furthermore, there are signs of growing divisions within Frelimo, particularly between the revolutionarly generation and a new generation of technocrats. There is little space for any other political parties, who garnered only 1.5 per cent of the vote in the 1999 elections. [1] Nevertheless, the main players appear to have accepted the need to operate within democratic norms and there is an increasingly vibrant civil society.
The Mozambican armed forces have no history of praetorianism, under the Marxist-Leninist system were closely integrated with the ruling party. Internal security is devolved a paramilitary police force. Despite dire predictions, demobilisation of 80 000 combatants has been reasonably successfully accomplished, although many of them remain jobless. The new integrated defence force, the Forcas Armadas por Defesa de Mocambique (FADM) was intended to be 30 000 strong, but such was the demand for demobilisation that it was at one stage reduced to around 6 000. Numbers have subsequently increased, and conscription has been reintroduced, although it is unpopular and is widely ignored (and the government does not have the ability to enforce it). The defence force is in a sorry state, with much of its equipment inoperable, its navy and air force largely inoperative, and almost all its budget allocated to personnel expenses. However, there are no signs that it is likely to pose a threat to security.
Violent crime remains probably the major security problem. The judicial system is increasingly dysfunctional, corruption is rife, and the police have found it difficult to move from a political to an anti-crime role. Some senior officials and business leaders are believed to have links to criminal gangs, many of them internationalised.
Land mines also remain a problem, although a somewhat overstated one. There are an estimated 250 000 mines still in the ground (compared to a onetime estimate of 2 million) but extensive de-mining has taken place.
Mozambique enjoys good relations with all its neighbours and with most of the international community, and President Chissano has proved an active peacemaker within Africa, remaining neutral in the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (and thus provoking some minor tensions with Zimbabwe and Angola). Relations with South Africa are very close although South African dominance of the economy is increasingly viewed with alarm in Maputo. Mozambique is also very concerned about the deteriorating security, political and economic situation in Zimbabwe, although it has retained its historically close links with Zanu-PF.

Security-Related Budget

Military expenditure declined rapidly after the end of the civil war. It constituted 2.4 per cent of GDP in 1999, compared to 10.1 per cent in 1990. Health expenditure in 1998 was 2.8 per cent of GDP. [2]

Political Oversight [3]

  • President & Commander-in-Chief : Joaquim Chissano

  • Minister of Defence & Security Affairs (President’s Office) & Minister of the Interior : Almerhinho Manhenje

  • Minister of Defence : Tobias Dai

International Treaties/ Protocols/ Alliances


Mozambique is a member of:
  • United Nations
  • World Trade Organisation
  • Organisation of African Unity/ African Union
  • African Development Bank
  • Commonwealth
  • Non-Aligned Movement
  • Organisation of the Islamic Conference
  • Southern African Development Community
  • Organisation of the Portuguese Language Countries

International Community Involvement

Italy has been involved in training of the Mozambique police.

Forces Deployed Outside the Country

Mozambique is increasingly involved in UN peace missions, although in small numbers. There are two observers with MONUC in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and 12 personnel, including two observers, with UNTAET in East Timor.

DEFENCE FORCE: FORCAS ARMADA POR DEFESA DE MOCAMBIQUE

Senior Personnel

Structure

The defence force is structured as an army, navy and air force. The army is by far the largest force and is broken into three infantry battalions, three special forces battalions and a logistic battalion, supported by an infantry company.

Bases

Defence Budget

The defence budget was US$87 million in 2000 (estimated 1.4 billion meticai), down from US$94 million (1.2 billion meticai) in 1999. All defence expenditure was reflected in the defence budget.

Doctrine and training

The Mozambican defence force was heavily influenced by Soviet military doctrine and followed Soviet-style training prior to 1992.

Strength and Composition

The total size of the armed forces is estimated at 10 600 to 11 600 personnel, of which 9 000 to 10 000 are in the army. Conscription of 2-3 years has been introduced but in practice is highly selective. The navy has 600 personnel and the air force 1 000. [4]

Defence Equipment: 2001 [5]

Note that serviceability of main equipment, especially that of Soviet vintage, is extremely low (10 per cent or less).

Type

Details

Main battle tank
Some T-54/-55
Reconnaissance vehicles
30 x BRDM-1/-2
Armoured infantry fighting vehicles
40 x BMP-1
Armoured personnel carriers
150+ x BTR-60, 80 x BTR-152, 5 x Casspir
Towed artillery
136+ x 152/130/122/105/100mm
Inshore patrol craft
3 x PCI (non-operational)
Transport aircraft
5 x An-26, 2 x C-212, 4 x PA-32 Cherokee (non-operational)
Training aircraft
1 x Cessna 182, 7 x ZLIN-326
Helicopters
4+ x Mi-24, 5 x Mi-8 (mostly non-operational)

Latest Procurement

Due to downsizing, no significant procurement has taken place recently and none is expected.

Rebel Forces

The rebel Renamo movement has now been demobilised or integrated into the national armed forces and police forces.


[1] Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Profile: Mozambique 2001, p 8.
[2] UNDP, Human Development Report 2001, p 197.
[3] Statesman’s Yearbook 2002.
[4] IISS, The Military Balance 2001/2, p 271.

[5] IISS, The Military Balance 2001/2, p 271

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