Por Joseph Hanlon
Como um colegial travesso apanhado a fumar no barracão de bicicleta que é então convocado para o escritório do diretor da escola, o primeiro-ministro Carlos Agostinho do Rosário voou para Washington a comparecer perante diretor do FMI, Christine Lagarde. Aparentemente, ele confessou a ela que pelo menos US $ 1,35 bilhões em empréstimos foram contraídos em segredo, sem dizer parlamento ou doadores - ou, mais importante, o FMI.
Pelo menos US $ 2,2 bilhões - o equivalente a todos os gastos do governo por cinco meses - tem sido desperdiçado em segredo em barcos de necessidade duvidosa e, é amplamente assumida, sobre os pagamentos corruptos. Então, o que acontece agora?
Há dois princípios orientadores que irão moldar aconteça o que acontecer. Em primeiro lugar, a Frelimo está obcecado por manter a unidade a todo custo. Desde Eduardo Mondlane foi assassinado em 1969, a Frelimo tem percebido que ele só pode ganhar e manter o poder por não separar. Isso significa que ninguém é expulso do partido, não importa quão corruptos ou incompetentes eles são; qualquer um que pode ser uma ameaça é dada uma sinecura. Disputas são resolvidas dentro do partido e o objetivo é que os acordos ganha-ganha. O vínculo Ematum foi dito para beneficiar aliados do ex-presidente Armando Guebuza. Um dos empréstimos secretos apenas reveladas beneficiaram os militares, quando o atual presidente, Filipe Nyusi, era ministro da Defesa.
O segundo princípio orientador é que os grandes credores multinacionais e os doadores - o FMI, Banco Mundial e da União Europeia - bem como os doadores bilaterais maiores, precisa fornecer dinheiro para Moçambique. os oficiais de ajuda são principalmente julgados e promovidos com base em quanto dinheiro eles dispensam. Apesar da guerra e do escândalo, Moçambique é visto como um país que eles podem trabalhar e que segue em grande parte as políticas dos doadores; Maputo é um lugar agradável para trabalhar.
O resultado é um acordo tácito. Durante os escândalos de 1990, quando mais de US $ 400 milhões foi roubado de bancos, e de novo com Ematum, os doadores e credores tentaram conter os excessos mais flagrantes. Mas, principalmente, eles só fizeram ruídos irritados. Em particular, eles nunca ter exigido Frelimo para identificar publicamente os culpados - aqueles sênior no partido que roubou enormes quantidades e assassinatos ainda encomendados. Isso, por sua vez, permitiu Frelimo para se manter unido.
Apesar de ser ofendido, Christine Lagarde não vai cortar Moçambique, porque isso seria ruim para o FMI. Da mesma forma o Banco Mundial ea UE vai argumentar que eles têm grandes programas de desenvolvimento que beneficiam a maioria dos moçambicanos, para que eles não devem parar aqueles. Alguns doadores europeus com governos conservadores pode levar a sua ajuda em outros lugares, mas a maioria não vai. A vontade de nunca nomear os bandidos é porque a rede de clientelismo foi habilmente construído; qualquer um que é identificado irá nomear outros. Isso, por sua vez, poderia dividir o partido. Tanto a Frelimo e os doadores e credores temem que um partido dividido poderia perder a próxima eleição, ea maioria dos funcionários do doador e credor não querem um governo dirigido pelo atual oposição. Este, por sua vez, dá poder de negociação substancial para Nyusi, Guebuza, do Rosário e Ministro das Finanças Adriano Maleiane. Jh
Secret loans: What happens now?
By Joseph Hanlon
Like a naughty schoolboy caught smoking in the bike shed who is then summoned to the school principal's office, Prime Minister Carlos Agostinho do Rosario flew to Washington to appear before IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Apparently he confessed to her that at least $1.35 bn in loans were taken out in secret without telling parliament or donors - or, most importantly, the IMF.
At least $2.2 bn - equivalent to all government spending for five months - has been squandered in secret on boats of dubious necessity and, it is widely assumed, on corrupt payments. So, what happens now?
There are two guiding principles which will shape whatever happens. First, Frelimo is obsessed by maintaining unity at all costs. Ever since Eduardo Mondlane was assassinated in 1969, Frelimo has realised that it can only gain and keep power by not splitting up. That means no one is expelled from the party no matter how corrupt or incompetent they are; anyone who might be a threat is given a sinecure. Disputes are settled within the party and the aim is for win-win agreements. The Ematum bond was said to benefit allies of the former President Armando Guebuza. One of the secret loans just revealed benefitted the military when the current president, Filipe Nyusi, was defence minister.
The second guiding principle is that the big multinational lenders and donors - the IMF, World Bank and EU - as well as the bigger bilateral donors, need to provide money to Mozambique. Aid officials are mainly judged and promoted based on how much money they dispense. Despite war and scandal, Mozambique is seen as a country they can work with and which largely follows donor policies; Maputo is a pleasant place to work.
The result is a tacit agreement. During the scandals of 1990s when more than $400 mn was stolen from banks, and again with Ematum, the donors and lenders have tried to curb the most egregious excesses. But mostly they only made angry noises. In particular, they have never required Frelimo to publicly identify the culprits - those senior in the party who stole huge amounts and even ordered murders. That, in turn has allowed Frelimo to stay united.
Despite being offended, Christine Lagarde will not cut off Mozambique, because that would look bad for the IMF. Similarly the World Bank and EU will argue they have large development programmes which benefit most Mozambicans, so they should not stop those. A few European donors with conservative governments might take their aid elsewhere, but most will not. The willingness to never name the crooks is because the network of patronage has been skilfully constructed; anyone who is identified will name others. That, in turn, could split the party. Both Frelimo and the donors and lenders fear that a split party could lose the next election, and most donor and lender officials would not want a government run by the present opposition. This, in turn, gives substantial negotiating power to Nyusi, Guebuza, do Rosario and Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane. Jh
Secret loans: What happens now?
By Joseph Hanlon
Like a naughty schoolboy caught smoking in the bike shed who is then summoned to the school principal's office, Prime Minister Carlos Agostinho do Rosario flew to Washington to appear before IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Apparently he confessed to her that at least $1.35 bn in loans were taken out in secret without telling parliament or donors - or, most importantly, the IMF.
At least $2.2 bn - equivalent to all government spending for five months - has been squandered in secret on boats of dubious necessity and, it is widely assumed, on corrupt payments. So, what happens now?
There are two guiding principles which will shape whatever happens. First, Frelimo is obsessed by maintaining unity at all costs. Ever since Eduardo Mondlane was assassinated in 1969, Frelimo has realised that it can only gain and keep power by not splitting up. That means no one is expelled from the party no matter how corrupt or incompetent they are; anyone who might be a threat is given a sinecure. Disputes are settled within the party and the aim is for win-win agreements. The Ematum bond was said to benefit allies of the former President Armando Guebuza. One of the secret loans just revealed benefitted the military when the current president, Filipe Nyusi, was defence minister.
The second guiding principle is that the big multinational lenders and donors - the IMF, World Bank and EU - as well as the bigger bilateral donors, need to provide money to Mozambique. Aid officials are mainly judged and promoted based on how much money they dispense. Despite war and scandal, Mozambique is seen as a country they can work with and which largely follows donor policies; Maputo is a pleasant place to work.
The result is a tacit agreement. During the scandals of 1990s when more than $400 mn was stolen from banks, and again with Ematum, the donors and lenders have tried to curb the most egregious excesses. But mostly they only made angry noises. In particular, they have never required Frelimo to publicly identify the culprits - those senior in the party who stole huge amounts and even ordered murders. That, in turn has allowed Frelimo to stay united.
Despite being offended, Christine Lagarde will not cut off Mozambique, because that would look bad for the IMF. Similarly the World Bank and EU will argue they have large development programmes which benefit most Mozambicans, so they should not stop those. A few European donors with conservative governments might take their aid elsewhere, but most will not. The willingness to never name the crooks is because the network of patronage has been skilfully constructed; anyone who is identified will name others. That, in turn, could split the party. Both Frelimo and the donors and lenders fear that a split party could lose the next election, and most donor and lender officials would not want a government run by the present opposition. This, in turn, gives substantial negotiating power to Nyusi, Guebuza, do Rosario and Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane. Jh
In News reports & clippings - 24.04.2016
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