sexta-feira, 13 de maio de 2016

Michel Temer era informante do governo americano


Wikileaks: Michel Temer era informante do governo americano


pre-sal-3

Não venham me dizer que estou inventando coisas!
Sei que parece teoria da conspiração, papo de esquerdista maluco, mas não posso fazer nada.
Não fui eu que disse.  Foi o Wikileaks. Hoje.
A organização divulgou, em seu twitter, nesta noite de quinta-feira, um micropost em que acusa o "presidente interino" Michel Temer de ser informante do governo americano.
Observe que o Wikileaks chama o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff pelo que ele é: um golpe parlamentar.
ScreenHunter_87 May. 13 00.16
Os bilhetes diplomáticos não mostram, a meu ver, nada explosivo. Seria exagerado chamar Michel Temer de "informante da CIA", por exemplo. Ele não valia tanto para a CIA.
O Wikileaks o chama apenas de "informante da embaixada americana". O que é a mesma coisa de ser chamado de "informante do governo americano", visto que as informações que ele fornece são remetidas imediatamente para órgãos estratégicos do governo dos Estados Unidos.
Os bilhetes não são classificados, ou seja, não são secretos, mas contém informações que devem ser usadas apenas entre as autoridades do governo americano.
Temer subsidia o Cônsul Geral de São Paulo com informações, de fato, sensíveis, sobretudo partindo de um aliado político do governo brasileiro. Ele faz, por exemplo, críticas pesadas ao governo Lula, dizendo que ele investia muito em programas sociais... E menciona a possibilidade do PMDB construir uma candidatura própria.
O atual presidente interino, já então presidente do PMDB, diz outra coisa perigosa a se dizer a um membro do ultra-conservador serviço de inteligência do governo americano, como são quase todos os cônsules, em especial os de São Paulo e Rio: Temer afirma que Lula daria uma  forte guinada à esquerda em seu segundo governo. Um aliado do governo afirmar isso a um agente da inteligência norte-americana é uma irresponsabilidade!
Coisa de traíra mesmo.
Temer estava entregando estratégias políticas internas ultrasensíveis, em vocabulário alarmante, a uma autoridade do serviço de inteligência de uma potência altamente agressiva e bélica como os Estados Unidos!
Outra parte que revela o caráter traiçoeiro de Temer é quando aborda os esquemas de corrupção do PT e não lembra ao cônsul que o seu próprio partido é o mais corrupto de todos. Manchar a imagem do partido aliado, numa reunião secreta com o embaixador americano, não me parece uma postura leal e digna.
Os bilhetes do Wikileaks não provam que Michel Temer estivesse na folha de pagamento da CIA, mas revelam um traidor contumaz, um traidor de seus aliados no Brasil e, portanto, um traidor também dos interesses nacionais.
Há um capítulo, inclusive, que o funcionário do serviço secreto americano, que resenha o bilhete, dá um título irônico às falas de Michel Temer: "With Allies Like This . . . "
Que significa: "Com um aliado como esse..."
Os mexicanos diriam, ironicamente: muy amigo!
O funcionário, naturalmente, ficou chocado com a falta de cuidado de Michel Temer, em revelar tão abertamente, tão loquazmente, a um representante de governo estrangeiro, a discórdia surda, crescente, entre PT e PMDB.
A NSA, pelo jeito, não tem muito o que fazer por aqui: os nossos políticos vazam, voluntariamente, informações sensíveis ao governo americano. Se vazam de graça, não posso dizer.
Links dos dois bilhetes vazados:
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO689_a.html
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO30_a.html
******

  • Quanta besteira, antes os Estados Unidos do que esses bandidos, terroristas, loucos comunistas do luladrao e sua quadrilha esquadrilha que quebraram o Brasil.
    • Avatar
      Se o Vice Presidente dos EUA tivesse mandado este tipo de informação para uma outro pais seria condenado.Provavelmente sentenciado a pena de morte.
        • Avatar
          Isso não seria suficientemente para um impeachment?
            • Avatar
              E agora, quem poderá nos sustentar?
                • Avatar
                  Agora o governo americano poupará recursos empenhados para esse tipo "servico". Por muito menos Calabar foi esmagado entre as moedas de um engenho.
                    • Avatar
                      Hmmm. Isso não me surpreende tanto assim.
                      Agora a pergunta é: em que circunstâncias nós podemos usar essa informação como arma?
                        • Avatar
                          É preciso assistir ao documentário "O Dia Que Durou 21 Anos". Tem completo no YouTube.
                            • Avatar
                              Nossa mais uma vez o IMPÉRIO DO MAL articulando para nos transformar em seus vassalos kkkkk
                                • Avatar
                                  E eis que Temer é comprovadamente um traidor da pátria...
                                    • Avatar
                                      #VazaTemer
                                      TRAIDOR, GOLPISTA, ACHACADOR DA NAÇÃO
                                        • Avatar
                                          Políticos que colocam seus interesses espúrios acima dos interesses da nação, são capazes de tudo para alcançar seus objetivos. Vindo de temer, nada me surpreende.
                                            • Avatar
                                              ÓBVIO ! Maluco é quem não acredita em conspiração. Foi por coisas ASSIM que eu falei numa ação "radical" e fulminante de Dilma, tomando de assalto certas "instalações" onde, com CERTEZA, há toneladas de documentos comprovando coisa muito pior. Isto é questão de Segurança Nacional mas....... Ainda não somos nem uma nação de verdade.
                                                • Avatar
                                                  O "mordomo de filme de terror", segundo o insuspeito e falecido ACM, o gestor de Carandiru ensanguentado, ficará preso no Palácio do Planalto por tempo indeterminado, distante do povo. Refém da mídia golpista, do STF e PGR, e da sua própria história de ambiguidades, será mero gerente de sua "Pinguela para o futuro". Que futuro?
                                                    • Avatar
                                                      Vemos um ministério de bandidos assaltando os cofres do Brasil,um poder judiciário cúmplice da mentira e do roubo,uma mídia manipuladora e impatriota,políticos e empresários corruptos.
                                                      Diante disso tudo,uma justiça bandida que faz o que bem quer uma polícia perversa e isenta de todo resquício de humanidade agindo como monstros predadores,despostas de uma tirania jamais suportável em qualquer democracia,não nos enganemos;somente uma revolução popular salva o Brasil e seu POVO.
                                                        • Avatar
                                                          É uma matéria bem importante e que a história irá explorar bem, a fim d que possamos conhecer a radiografia dos golpes de estado. Porém já não é novidade para ninguém, que o "puf", "títere do mercado", parafraseando PHA, venda informações e documentos confidenciais para quem pagar bem. Ora, é apenas uma questão lógica, Golpes de Estado na AL sempre tem as impressões digitais dos ianques, sendo os atores do golpe quem são não é preciso nem muitas elucubrações. Hoje, enquanto A Presidenta Dilma Rousseff fazia seu pronunciamento, no país estadunidense autoridades ianques afirmavam apoiar o Brasil. Isso é bem cínico. O imperialismo mundial está desesperado, já que seu capitalismo promissor fracassou e está a beira do abismo. Só que não esperavam um levante popular e tanta dificuldade em derrubar o governo mais progressista. Agora, não estamos vencidos, Presidenta foi afastada, mas ainda é. E os levantes não recuarão. Essa notícia de envolvimento dos ianques parece o mesmo caso da carta vazada, tipo recadinho: "olha o tio san tá de olho e tem poder sobre vcs!" 
                                                          O RATO temer e $ua corja de bandido$ FEDEM A ENXOFRE. ROUBARAM O GOVERNO.
                                                          "A democracia é o lado certo da história. Jamais vamos desistir, jamais vou desistir de lutar." Presidenta Dilma Rousseff
                                                          #OcupaTudoContraOGolpe
                                                          A LUTA APENAS COMEÇOU o/
                                                            • Avatar
                                                              Wikileaks STFzando?? Ou STF fazendo escola com o Wikileaks? Bom esse timing hein?!

                                                            Telegrama 1
                                                            PMDB CHIEF AFFIRMS PARTY'S POSITION AS POWER BROKER BUT BALKS AT PREDICTING PRESIDENTIAL RACE
                                                            Date: 2006 June 21, 16:05 (Wednesday)
                                                            Original Classification:
                                                            UNCLASSIFIED,FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
                                                            Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED,FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
                                                            Locator:
                                                            TEXT ONLINE
                                                            TAGS: BR - Brazil | ECON - Economic Affairs--Economic Conditions, Trends and Potential | PGOV - Political Affairs--Government; Internal Governmental Affairs | PINR - Political Affairs--Intelligence
                                                            Concepts: -- Not Assigned --
                                                            From: Brazil São Paulo
                                                            To: Argentina Buenos Aires | Bolivia La Paz | Brazil Brasilia | Brazil Recife | Brazil Rio De Janeiro | Chile Santiago | Department of Commerce | Department of Labor | Department of the Treasury | National Security Council | Paraguay Asunción | Secretary of State | United States Southern Command (Miami) | Uruguay Montevideo
                                                            Show Headers
                                                            (C) SAO PAULO 623; (D) BRASILIA 1136;
                                                            (E) SAO PAULO 573 AND PREVIOUS; (F) SAO PAULO 30
                                                            SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
                                                            -------
                                                            SUMMARY
                                                            -------
                                                            1. (SBU) Michel Temer, President of the Brazilian Democratic
                                                            Movement Party (PMDB), believes President Lula has done a masterful
                                                            job of disassociating himself from the political corruption scandals
                                                            that have crushed some of his closest advisers. He also has
                                                            effectively expanded social programs to earn the loyalty and support
                                                            of Brazil's lower-middle and lower classes. At the same time,
                                                            Lula's opponent, Sao Paulo ex-Governor Geraldo Alckmin, suffers from
                                                            a lack of charisma and a failure to have left a visible mark in five
                                                            years at the helm of Brazil's largest state. Nevertheless, Temer
                                                            declines to predict what will happen in this race, except to say it
                                                            will go to a second round, in which "anything can happen." He
                                                            confirmed that his own party will not run a candidate for president
                                                            and will not ally with either Lula's Workers Party (PT) or the
                                                            opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), at least not
                                                            before the second round. However, the PMDB will win the governors'
                                                            races in at least ten and possibly as many as fifteen states, and
                                                            will again have the largest bloc in both the Senate and the Chamber
                                                            of Deputies, so that "whoever wins the presidential election will
                                                            have to come to us to get anything done." END SUMMARY.
                                                            ----------------------
                                                            LULA'S SLEIGHT OF HAND
                                                            ----------------------
                                                            2. (SBU) In a June 19 meeting with Consul General (CG) and Poloff,
                                                            Michel Temer, Federal Deputy from Sao Paulo, offered his assessment
                                                            of the balance of forces for the presidential election. Though
                                                            anything can still happen -- he has seen candidates overcome much
                                                            greater disadvantages than Alckmin currently faces, and win -- it is
                                                            clear that President Lula is in a strong position. Temer
                                                            dispassionately analyzed how Lula had seen his Chief of Staff and
                                                            the entire leadership of his party disgraced, and prominent
                                                            Congressional members of his party dragged through scandal, and had
                                                            emerged personally more or less untouched. This was partly because
                                                            other political parties -- Temer mentioned the PSDB and the Liberal
                                                            Front Party (PFL) but not his own PMDB, though his comment could
                                                            just as easily apply to them -- had, at different times, been
                                                            involved in affairs akin to the PT's infamous "mensalao" bribery
                                                            scheme, and were thus not eager to expose the PT's misdeeds to the
                                                            fullest.
                                                            3. (U) It was also because Lula had such a strong bond with the
                                                            people, the so-called C, D, and E classes - i.e., the lower-middle
                                                            and lower classes. Many in these strata, in Temer's view, believe
                                                            that Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC) had robbed the poor and given
                                                            to the rich, while Lula robs the rich and gives to the poor. Lula
                                                            has expanded the "Bolsa Familia" program from 6.5 million families
                                                            in 2004 to 8.7 million in 2005 to 11 million families this year, or
                                                            (assuming two children per family) roughly 44 million Brazilians.
                                                            This, combined with the increase in the minimum wage, the rise of
                                                            the Real against the US dollar, and the fall in the price of certain
                                                            basic food staples, make the poor much better off. Paradoxically,
                                                            many of the rich, especially bankers and other major financial
                                                            players, have also benefited from Lula's policies.
                                                            4. (SBU) It is the middle class that has suffered from both an
                                                            increasing tax burden and the loss of professional-level jobs. In
                                                            SAO PAULO 00000689 002 OF 004
                                                            truth, Temer continued, it is difficult to be optimistic about
                                                            Brazil's economic future. The fact of 11 million families eligible
                                                            for Bolsa Familia handouts implies a minimum of 44 million people in
                                                            abject misery in Brazil. He described a recent event he had
                                                            attended sponsored by the Institute for Industrial Development
                                                            Studies (IEDI), where Minister of Development, Commerce, and
                                                            Industry Luiz Fernando Furlan delivered an upbeat speech. When
                                                            challenged by a member of the audience with a few hard questions and
                                                            statistics, Furlan, who has himself been at times a tough critic of
                                                            the GoB's economic policies, was at pains to respond. Brazil faces
                                                            serious challenges in fostering growth, stimulating productivity,
                                                            attracting investment, improving infrastructure, and reducing
                                                            inequality; however, Lula's sleight of hand has made many voters all
                                                            but unaware of these growing problems.
                                                            --------------------------
                                                            ALCKMIN'S LACK OF CHARISMA
                                                            --------------------------
                                                            5. (SBU) Meanwhile, Alckmin is simply stuck. Temer believes that
                                                            since inheriting the governorship from Mario Covas in 2001, Alckmin
                                                            has provided honest, decent, competent government to Sao Paulo.
                                                            However, in a country that relishes superlatives, he did not
                                                            champion any great works, and his accomplishments are not visible.
                                                            Alckmin is not personally aggressive or charismatic and is not given
                                                            to showmanship, so he didn't leave a distinctive mark on the state.
                                                            By way of comparison, Orestes Quercia (ref C), Governor of Sao Paulo
                                                            from 1987 to 1990, was a controversial (many say corrupt) figure,
                                                            but he definitely left his mark on the state in the many streets and
                                                            highways and prisons and hospitals he built. (COMMENT: The same
                                                            might be said of colorful, and reportedly equally corrupt, former
                                                            Mayor and Governor Paulo Maluf. END COMMENT.) Former President
                                                            Cardoso was another example of a politician who had charisma. But
                                                            let's wait and see what happens, Temer suggested. Wait until after
                                                            the World Cup, which could impact on the voters in a variety of
                                                            different and not easily predictable ways, depending on the result.
                                                            Wait until the government-subsidized television advertising begins.
                                                            It will be "a great war" on the airwaves, and it opens up
                                                            innumerable possibilities for the underdog.
                                                            6. (U) Temer, a former Sao Paulo state Secretary for Public
                                                            Security, was not certain whether Alckmin would suffer as a result
                                                            of the recent violence on the streets and in the prisons of Sao
                                                            Paulo (ref E) perpetrated by the criminal gang First Capital Command
                                                            (PCC). Some of his public criticism of his successor, Governor
                                                            Claudio Lembo, had been unfortunate and not good for his image. But
                                                            only time will tell how this situation plays out.
                                                            ------------------------
                                                            LULA'S TURN TO THE LEFT?
                                                            ------------------------
                                                            7. (SBU) CG asked what a second Lula term would look like, assuming
                                                            he is re-elected. Unlike some of our interlocutors, Temer believes
                                                            Lula may take a more radical (i.e., populist) approach during a
                                                            second term. The recent incident in which radicals from the
                                                            Movement for the Liberation of the Landless (MLST) stormed the
                                                            Chamber of Deputies (ref D) and committed acts of vandalism was a
                                                            harbinger of things to come. The group's leader, a member of the
                                                            PT's Executive Committee, had on many occasions over the years been
                                                            seen at Lula's side. The PT had suspended him, but had taken no
                                                            further action and did not appear particularly upset over the
                                                            episode, Temer noted.
                                                            8. (SBU) Lula, in Temer's view, was a trade unionist who had done
                                                            well for himself, who, once re-elected, might finally begin to heed
                                                            his friends on the left. Very possibly he would let himself be led
                                                            SAO PAULO 00000689 003 OF 004
                                                            away from the orthodox macro-economic policies that have dominated
                                                            his first term. (COMMENT: Some other observers have also pointed to
                                                            the GOB's expansion of social spending in recent months as an
                                                            indication that Lula is drifting left. Thus far, however, this
                                                            spending seems in line with the pump-priming measures of most
                                                            incumbents seeking re-election. While Temer sees Lula's campaign
                                                            pitting "rich versus poor" as a sign of things to come in a second
                                                            term, many analysts who have followed Lula's career characterize him
                                                            as a "cultural conservative" who is unlikely to succumb to the
                                                            radical leftist/populist temptation. A more worrisome, and more
                                                            likely, scenario is a second-term Lula government that lacks the
                                                            policy direction, political will, and working majority in Congress
                                                            required to push through essential economic and political reforms.
                                                            END COMMENT.)
                                                            ------------------------------
                                                            PMDB - A HOUSE (STILL) DIVIDED
                                                            ------------------------------
                                                            9. (SBU) Turning to his own party's fortunes, Temer confirmed
                                                            reports that the PMDB will not run its own candidate for President,
                                                            and will not enter into a formal alliance with either the PSDB or
                                                            the PT. Any of these options at the national level, he explained,
                                                            would damage the party's chances in some of the states because the
                                                            "verticalization" rule remains in effect during the 2006 elections.
                                                            The recent ruling by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which
                                                            would have tightened even further the rules governing party
                                                            alliances (ref B), was probably correct, Temer averred, even though
                                                            it would have been disastrous for the PMDB. If you're going to
                                                            require parties to replicate their national alliances at the state
                                                            level, it makes perfect sense to go a step further and say that
                                                            parties that don't run or formally support presidential candidates
                                                            may not ally at the state level with parties that do. Nevertheless,
                                                            as the head of a party whose lifeblood is coalition-building at the
                                                            state level, Temer was relieved when the TSE reversed itself within
                                                            48 hours, and he looked forward to the 2010 elections when the
                                                            Constitutional amendment abolishing the "verticalization" rule
                                                            altogether would enter into force.
                                                            10. (SBU) If the presidential election goes into a second round, as
                                                            Temer is sure it will, the PMDB may at that point throw its support
                                                            to one side or the other. The PMDB remains split almost evenly
                                                            between the pro- and anti-Lula groups. The former seeks alliances
                                                            with the PT and hopes for several Ministries in Lula's second
                                                            administration. Temer, who is anti-Lula, was highly critical of the
                                                            pro-Lula faction and commented wryly over some of the party's
                                                            internal contradictions and divisions. Renan Calheiros, President
                                                            of the Senate, is the leader of the PMDB's pro-Lula faction; yet, in
                                                            his home state of Alagoas (northeast), the PMDB will support the
                                                            PSDB's gubernatorial candidate, Senator Teotonio Vilela. Another
                                                            pro-Lula leader is Senator (and former President) Jose Sarney, but
                                                            his daughter, PFL Senator Roseana Sarney, will be running for
                                                            Governor of Maranhao (also in the northeast) with PMDB support
                                                            against a PT candidate. Temer outlined the situation state by
                                                            state, ending with Sao Paulo. The PSDB, he noted, badly wants an
                                                            alliance with the PMDB, but they want to choose the PMDB candidate
                                                            to be Jose Serra's running mate. This issue will be resolved within
                                                            the week, since the PMDB holds its state convention on June 24. The
                                                            party will not hold a national convention June 29 as originally
                                                            planned, since all its issues at the national level were resolved at
                                                            a preliminary June 11 caucus.
                                                            11. (SBU) Temer, who himself had strongly favored fielding a PMDB
                                                            presidential candidate (ref F), noted that by relinquishing this
                                                            ambition, the PMDB stands to win the governors' races in ten or
                                                            perhaps even fifteen states, and will again have the largest blocs
                                                            in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. Thus, whichever
                                                            SAO PAULO 00000689 004 OF 004
                                                            party wins the Presidency will inevitably have to seek an alliance
                                                            with the PMDB in order to govern. Temer spoke caustically of the
                                                            Lula administration's miserly rewards for its allies in the PMDB.
                                                            They give the job of Minister to a PMDB loyalist, but no real
                                                            control over the Ministry; thus, he can't accomplish anything. In
                                                            contrast, Temer believes that in return for joining a governing
                                                            alliance, the party should be given control over a sector of the
                                                            economy, agriculture, say, or health, and full responsibility for
                                                            operating that sector, and should receive full credit or blame for
                                                            the successes and failures in that sector. (COMMENT: Left unsaid,
                                                            of course, is that the sort of control Temer envisions would also
                                                            give the PMDB, and other allied parties, the opportunity to advance
                                                            their political patronage goals at the taxpayers' expense. The
                                                            PMDB, which is Brazil's largest political party, is already
                                                            well-known as a vehicle for patronage. END COMMENT.)
                                                            -------
                                                            COMMENT
                                                            -------
                                                            12. (SBU) Temer was more charitable in his assessment of Alckmin's
                                                            campaign and his performance as Governor than Alckmin's own PSDB
                                                            colleague, Andrea Matarazzo (ref A). Nevertheless, Temer's critique
                                                            hits home: Alckmin may perform in the coming months, but so far he
                                                            simply has not connected at any level with the electorate. Lula's
                                                            job performance, on the other hand, may be open to question, but his
                                                            ability to communicate with and relate to the average Brazilian is
                                                            unsurpassed. Temer is correct that whichever candidate wins will
                                                            need to turn to the PMDB for support in governing. The real problem
                                                            is that the PMDB has no ideology or policy framework that it could
                                                            bring to the task of formulating and implementing a coherent
                                                            national political agenda. Despite the party's illustrious history
                                                            as the guiding force that led Brazil from military dictatorship to
                                                            democracy, the PMDB, which now holds the balance of political power,
                                                            has devolved into a loose coalition of opportunistic regional
                                                            "caciques" who for the most part - and there are exceptions - seek
                                                            political power for its own sake. Such a party is hardly suited to
                                                            the task of providing political direction, which would be
                                                            particularly important in a post-election alliance with Lula's
                                                            rudderless PT. END COMMENT.
                                                            13. (U) This cable was coordinated/cleared with Embassy Brasilia.
                                                            MCMULLEN
                                                            ********
                                                            Telegrama 2
                                                            PMDB LEADER PONDERS PARTY'S ELECTORAL OPTIONS
                                                            Date: 2006 January 11, 14:02 (Wednesday)
                                                            Original Classification: UNCLASSIFIED,FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
                                                            Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED,FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
                                                            TAGS: BR - Brazil | ETRD - Economic Affairs--Foreign Trade | PGOV - Political Affairs--Government; Internal Governmental Affairs | PINR - Political Affairs--Intelligence
                                                            From: Brazil São Paulo
                                                            To: Argentina Buenos Aires | Bolivia La Paz | Brazil Brasilia | Brazil Recife | Brazil Rio De Janeiro | Chile Santiago | National Security Council | Paraguay Asunción | Secretary of State | United States Southern Command (Miami) | Uruguay Montevideo
                                                            Content
                                                            1. (U) Sensitive but Unclassified - protect accordingly.
                                                            2. (SBU) Summary: Federal Deputy Michel Temer, national
                                                            president of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB),
                                                            believes that public disillusion with President Lula and the
                                                            Workers' Party (PT) provides an opportunity for the PMDB to
                                                            field its own candidate in the 2006 presidential election.
                                                            However, party divisions and the lack of a compelling choice
                                                            as a candidate could force the PMDB into an alliance with
                                                            Lula's PT or the opposition PSDB. If Lula's polling numbers
                                                            do not improve before the PMDB primaries in March, Temer
                                                            said his party might nominate its own candidate. This would
                                                            still allow the party to forge an alliance with the PT or
                                                            PSDB in a runoff, assuming that the PMDB candidate fails to
                                                            make the second round. Given its centrist orientation, the
                                                            PMDB may hold the balance of votes between the two opposing
                                                            forces. It is also likely to remain a force at the local
                                                            and state level. Temer believes it has a chance to win as
                                                            many as 14 gubernatorial races. End Summary.
                                                            ---------------------------
                                                            With Allies Like This . . .
                                                            ---------------------------
                                                            3. (SBU) Michel Temer, a Federal deputy from Sao Paulo who
                                                            served as president of the Chamber of Deputies from 1997
                                                            through 2000, met January 9 with CG and poloffs to discuss
                                                            the current political situation. Lula's election, he said,
                                                            had raised great hope among the Brazilian people, but his
                                                            performance in office has been disappointing. Temer
                                                            criticized Lula's narrow vision and his excessive focus on
                                                            social safety net programs that don't promote growth or
                                                            economic development. The PT had campaigned on one program
                                                            and, once in office, had done the opposite of what it
                                                            promised, which Temer characterized as electoral fraud.
                                                            Worse, some PT leaders had stolen state money, not for
                                                            personal gain, but to expand the party's power, and had thus
                                                            fomented a great deal of popular disillusion.
                                                            -------------------------
                                                            PMDB Perceives an Opening
                                                            -------------------------
                                                            4. (SBU) This reality, Temer continued, opens an
                                                            opportunity for the PMDB. The party currently holds nine
                                                            statehouses and has the second-highest number of federal
                                                            deputies (after the PT), along with a great many mayoralties
                                                            and city council and state legislative seats. Polls show
                                                            that voters are tired of both the PT and the main opposition
                                                            party, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). For
                                                            example, a recent poll showed former governor (and PMDB
                                                            state chairman) Orestes Quercia leading in the race for Sao
                                                            Paulo state governor.
                                                            -----------------------
                                                            Divisions Dog the Party
                                                            -----------------------
                                                            5. (SBU) Asked why the PMDB remains so divided, Temer said
                                                            the reasons were both historical and related to the nature
                                                            of Brazilian political parties. The PMDB grew out of the
                                                            Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) under the military
                                                            dictatorship, which operated as an umbrella group for
                                                            legitimate opposition to the military dictatorship. After
                                                            the restoration of democracy, some members left the PMDB to
                                                            form new parties (such as the PT and PSDB), but many of
                                                            those who remained now act as power brokers at the local and
                                                            regional level. Thus the PMDB has no real unifying national
                                                            identity but rather an umbrella organization for regional
                                                            "caciques" or bosses. Temer noted that the PMDB is not the
                                                            only divided party. Although there are 28 political parties
                                                            in Brazil, most of them do not represent an ideology or a
                                                            particular line of political thinking that would support a
                                                            national vision.
                                                            ----------------------------
                                                            SAO PAULO 00000030 002 OF 003
                                                            PMDB Primaries Set for March
                                                            ----------------------------
                                                            6. (SBU) Temer confirmed press reports that he is seeking
                                                            to move the March 5 primary date to a date later in the
                                                            month. (Note: March 31 is the deadline for executives and
                                                            Ministers to resign their offices if they plan to run for
                                                            public office. End Note.) There will be some 20,000
                                                            electors, he said, including all PMDB members who hold
                                                            electoral office (federal and state deputies, governors,
                                                            mayors, vice-governors and -mayors, and other elected
                                                            municipal officials) as well as delegates chosen at state
                                                            conventions.
                                                            ---------------------------------------
                                                            Lula's Numbers Will Drive PMDB Strategy
                                                            ---------------------------------------
                                                            7. (SBU) If, between now and the primary, the Lula
                                                            government's standing in the polls improves, it is still
                                                            possible the PMDB will seek an electoral alliance with Lula
                                                            and the PT, Temer said. If not, the PMDB will run its own
                                                            candidate. So far, Rio de Janeiro ex-governor Anthony
                                                            Garotinho has been working the hardest, reaching out to the
                                                            whole country in search of support. But there is resistance
                                                            to him from within the PMDB, in part due to his populist
                                                            image, in part because there appears to be a ceiling to his
                                                            support. Germano Rigotto, governor of Rio Grande do Sul
                                                            (reftels) is a possible candidate, though he is still not
                                                            well known outside the south. Nelson Jobim, a judge on the
                                                            Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) who has announced his
                                                            intention to step down, is another possibility; however, he
                                                            can't campaign until he leaves the Tribunal, and he may not
                                                            have time to attract the support necessary to win the
                                                            primary.
                                                            --------------------------------------------
                                                            PMDB's Fallback - PT or PSDB in Second Round
                                                            --------------------------------------------
                                                            8. (SBU) Temer was confident that despite its current
                                                            division, the PMDB will unite for the election, whether in
                                                            support of its own candidate or in alliance with another
                                                            party. If it runs a candidate who fails to make it to the
                                                            second round, the party will seek to negotiate an alliance
                                                            with one of the two finalists. He noted that the PMDB had
                                                            supported the government of PSDB former president Fernando
                                                            Henrique Cardoso, and said there should be a "re-fusion" of
                                                            the two parties into a permanent grand alliance. The PMDB
                                                            would have no problem with either Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra
                                                            or Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin, who are
                                                            competing for the PSDB nomination. In 2002, the PMDB
                                                            supported Serra against Lula.
                                                            9. (SBU) Asked about the party's program, Temer indicated
                                                            that the PMDB favors policies to support economic growth.
                                                            It has no objection to the Free Trade Area of the Americas
                                                            (FTAA). It would prefer to see Mercosul strengthened so as
                                                            to negotiate FTAA as a bloc, but the trend appears to be
                                                            moving the other way.
                                                            ------------------------------
                                                            Comment: PMDB As Power Broker?
                                                            ------------------------------
                                                            10. (SBU) For now, the PMDB is keeping its options open.
                                                            Though Temer didn't mention it, the party's leadership is
                                                            waiting to see whether the "verticalizacao" rule will remain
                                                            in force for the 2006 elections. This rule, decreed by a
                                                            2002 decision of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),
                                                            dictates that electoral alliances at the national level must
                                                            be replicated in races for governors and federal deputies.
                                                            The Senate passed a measure repealing the rule, and the
                                                            lower chamber is expected to vote on it shortly, with
                                                            prospects uncertain. There is also a legal challenge to the
                                                            rule pending which the TSE will likely take up in February.
                                                            The PMDB wants to know the rules of the game before deciding
                                                            on possible alliances, since most observers believe that a
                                                            SAO PAULO 00000030 003 OF 003
                                                            PMDB presidential candidate would not fare well under the
                                                            current system of "verticalizacao." Temer appeared open to
                                                            the possibility of an alliance with either the PT or the
                                                            PSDB, or to a stand-alone PMDB candidate. Given its
                                                            centrist orientation, the PMDB may hold the balance of votes
                                                            between Lula's PT and the opposition PSDB, and thus bears
                                                            watching closely in the months ahead. End Comment.
                                                            11. (U) Biographic Note: Michel Miguel Elias Temer Lulia
                                                            has served as federal deputy from Sao Paulo since 1987,
                                                            except for a two-year period (1993-94) when he was Secretary
                                                            for Public Security in the Sao Paulo state government. He
                                                            studied at the University of Sao Paulo and earned a
                                                            Doctorate in Law from the Catholic University of Sao Paulo.
                                                            From 1984 through 1986 he was the state's Prosecutor
                                                            General. He served as the PMDB's leader in the Camara de
                                                            Deputados 1995-97 and as President of the Camara 1997-2000.
                                                            He was national president of the PMDB 2001-03 and 2004-
                                                            present.
                                                            12. (U) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy
                                                            Brasilia.
                                                            McMullen

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