AUTHOR LtCdr. Armstead J. Galiber, USN CSC 1989 SUBJECT AREA - Foreign Policy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TITLE: UNITED STATES FOREIGN POLICY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA-- A CLOSER LOOK I. Purpose: To examine alternatives to current United States foreign policy in Southern Africa. II. Problem: Although the United States is opposed to the practice of apartheid, its economic relations and policy of Constructive Engagement serves to perpetuate apartheid and hinder the spread of democracy. III. Data: South Africa's economic and military power over its neighbors and its insistence on preserving white minority rule present a serious foreign policy dilemma for the United States. Current U.S. foreign policy is based upon the concept of Constructive Engagement which is intended to give incentive to the Pretoria Government to end its practice of apartheid and end destabilization practices against South Africa's neighbors. The United States is faced with a dilemma because it is dependent upon South Africa for its source of strategic metals and cannot afford an interruption in that supply. The United States also sees support of South Africa as necessary to hold back the expansion of communism in the region when, in fact, South Africa's efforts to preserve its form of government sow seeds of discontent conducive to the growth of communism. IV. Conclusions: Although the accelerating trend in southern Africa toward a major extension of regional conflict has been slowed by the recent peace agreement between South Africa, Cuba and Angola, United States foreign policy in southern Africa has encouraged a build up of Soviet and Cuban influence in the area. United States import vulnerability has forced it to take foreign policy positions that compromise its integrity as a world power. V. Recommendations: The United States government must begin to invest in developing alternative sources of strategic metals by carrying out the provisions of the 1980 Comprehensive Nonfuel Minerals Policy. Given the continued resolve of the South African white minority not to promote meaningful change, the United States should support comprehensive economic sanctions against the Pretoria government and invest in those Front Line States struggling to survive independently of South Africa. South Africa is a powerful military and industrial state of strategic importance to the United States, but because this state is built upon a national political system devoted to the perpetuation of white domination, the United States is faced with a serious foreign policy dilemma. Constructive Engagement and the imposition of limited economic sanctions against South Africa is the United States attempt to push the Pretoria government toward a peaceful end to the practice of apartheid and destabilization. The rationale supporting this approach is based upon what appears to be both humanitarian and ulterior motives. First, South Africa is the United States primary source of strategic metals critical to U.S. national security. Second, South Africa represents a deterrent to the progress of communism in southern Africa. Third, the economies of the Front Line States, and the income of the Black, Coloured and Indian South African citizens is dependent upon the South African economy. And so, in a sense, Constructive Engagement is the United States' attempt not to throw out the baby (the South African government) with the bath water (apartheid). Although this rationale appears valid on the surface, I invite you to take closer look from a different perspective. I think you may find that U.S. rationale is, in fact, irrational. The United States should throw out the baby with the bath water. Not as a malicious act, but as an act of warranted desperation. There are three points I will develop to support this position. First, the importance of South Africa's resources to United States national security can and should be reduced. Second, it is the illegal practice of apartheid, and the destabilization tactics of South Africa that not only sow seeds for the growth of communism in southern Africa, but serve to perpetuate the Front Line States' dependence on the South African economy. Third, although there is still a small ray of hope for peaceful change, comprehensive economic sanctions is the only remaining tool that the United States can use to force the Pretoria government to discontinue the unjust and intrinsically violent practice of apartheid. While I develop these points, I ask that you consider these two underlying thoughts. First, America's commitment to the survival of Israel may be proportional to the U.S. Jewish population's commitment to their mother land, and the level of Jewish political and economic influence on the U.S. government. Also, hypothetically consider what the level of U.S. commitment to ending apartheid would be if the roles of whites and blacks in South Africa were reversed. STRATEGIC METALS According to a paper written by W.W. Malan, Vice President of the South African Chamber of Mines, the United States annually imports more than one-billion dollars in chromium, manganese, and platinum for its industrial economy and national defense. Most of the world's manganese reserves are held by the Soviet Union and South Africa, and these countries own the world's platinum. Together, South Africa and the Soviet Union "...hold some 95 percent of the world's vanadium reserves, 94 percent of its manganese, 90 percent of its platinum group metals, ... and an important proportion of strategic minerals. "(1:187) With these statistics, it is obvious to see that South Africa is strategic to the United States economy and national security. The question is whether or not there is an alternative to this dependence. The United States has options to free itself from strategic dependence on South Africa thereby allowing more flexibility in foreign policy matters in southern Africa. In 1980 the United States Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations advocated a comprehensive nonfuel minerals policy "...formulated in cooperation with our allies." (1:189) This policy recommended alternatives to the view that the United States cannot do without South Africa's critical minerals. Its intention was to give the executive branch greater control over the problem of import vulnerability. Rhoda Plotkin, a lecturer in political science, studied this problem and analyzed the Reagan Administration's approach in the light of constructive engagement. She found that the Administration had not carried out the provisions of this 1980 materials act fully, and she offered two possible explanations for this outcome. First, the Administration did not see a meaningful change in the status quo in South Africa and believed that revolutionary violence could be curtailed with the help of constructive engagement. Second, "President Reagan's political philosophy and style was the call to reduce the size and role of the federal government." (7:203) This approach cannot continue. It would be unwise to rely solely on foreign sources of metals and technology from areas of potential interruption. A comprehensive nonfuels policy as recommended by the U.S. subcommittee recommends stockpiling of the four critical materials that the United States imports from South Africa: chromium, manganese, vanadium, and platinum group metals. This would raise the levels of these critical materials to serve as a buffer should any interruption occur. The United States National Materials Advisory Board in 1978 concluded that the U.S. is strategically more vulnerable to a long term interruption of chromium than an embargo of any other natural resource including petroleum. (7:205) Conservation through reducing consumption, recycling and substitution are other promising alternatives discussed in this study. For instance, platinum uses could be limited to essential industrial and defense uses. The use of platinum in the automobile and petroleum industry can be reduced by developing a method for recovering the 70-80 percent of the platinum that is salvageable after catalytic use in the process of refining high-octaine gasoline to control auto pollution. A strategy of diversifying and expanding the range of foreign suppliers and domestic producers would also give the United States greater control over import vulnerability. Manganese is also produced in Brazil, Australia, India and Gabon.(4:34A) Although these minerals are not as well processed as they are in South Africa, these countries should be used as alternative suppliers. It is true that alternatives such as stockpiling critical materials, conserving critical metals through reduced consumption, recycling, and use of alternative suppliers are costly endeavors. It is also true that none of these alternatives will discontinue our dependence on South Africa over night, but to not develop these alternatives perpetuates our vulnerability, influences our foreign policy decisions, and sends a disturbing message to the world about our level of commitment to human rights. SEEDS OF COMMUNISM Congratulations are in order to the United States for its role in bringing about the signing of the historic peace agreement between South Africa, Angola, and Cuba. To then say that U.S. support of South Africa indirectly promotes the cause of communism in southern Africa may sound contradictory. Let me explain. The presence of Cuban and Soviet troops in Angola, and the Soviet presence in Mozambique exemplify Soviet expansionist doctrine. I compare their method of expansion to that of an opportunistic infection that takes over the body because of weakness caused by an underlying systemic disease. In the case of southern Africa, the Pretoria government's aggression against the surrounding states (destabilization), though rationalized in the idiom of anticommunism, is the underlying systemic disease of that region. The hearts and minds of the African people broken and tortured by these destabilization practices are therefore the bodies most susceptible to the opportunistic infection of communism. Roger Martin, a British diplomat who recently served as Deputy High Commissioner in Zimbabwe defines destabilization as both direct military action and support of insurgent groups. In the land-locked states, the targets have been largely military and political, whereas in Mozambique they have been economic.(7:389) Until the recent cease fire with Angola, all three forms of power were targets in that country. The Southern African Development Corporation Conference (SADCC) embodies the counter-strategy attempts of Front Line States. Their main efforts are directed toward rebuilding and improving a transport and communications infrastructure necessary to sustain economic growth. Although efforts are spearheaded by several governments, the private sector, including many large western corporations, are involved in the projects.(7:391) South Africa is using its military power and its support of insurgent groups to block or control these trade routes between members of SADDC. RENAMO (Mozambican National Resistance), created by the Rhodesian Central Intelligence Organization in the late 1970s as a reconnaissance and harassment force, was handed over to South African control after Robert Mugabe's accession to power in 1980. This transfer gave South Africa the means to create blockades on five of the land-locked states. Due to this campaign of terror and destruction, these states are forced to use routes going through South Africa at great cost to their economies and independence. (5:13) The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) is another insurgent group sponsored by the South African government. The Benguela line through Angola has been closed by UNITA since 1976. Angola, a resource-rich nation that maintains excellent relations with many United States corporations cannot feed its people. UNITA rebels have driven people from their homes and halted agriculture by sowing fields and roads with antipersonnel mines, producing the world's greatest proportion of amputees, estimated to number between 20,000 and 50,000. It is estimated that UNITA gets 150-200 million dollars in military and other aid annually. (14:65) The logistic benefit UNITA derived from South Africa's military and administrative occupation of neighboring Namibia contributed to a growing Soviet and Cuban commitment to the Marxist Angolan government. Under the Reagan Doctrine of aiding anticommunist guerrillas, the United States directed 15 million dollars annually to UNITA. President Bush has continued this support. In line with the escalating military interventions inside Angola, Cuban troop levels are believed to have tripled since 1980, to 50,000. (14:66) Fortunately, progress in the U.S. sponsored peace talks involving Angola, Cuba and South Africa offer some fresh hope for the region. Should these talks succeed in removing Cuban forces from Angola, in ending South African's interventions inside Angola, and in bringing Namibia to independence, it will be a tribute to the Administration's perseverance. It would also signify a shift to a more evenhanded U.S. appreciation of Angola's genuine security concerns. However, according to Representative Howard Wolpe, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, the new momentum in diplomatic negotiations has relatively little to do with either constructive engagement policies of Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Chester Croker or U.S. military assistance to the insurgents of UNITA.(14:61) South Africa's newfound interest in cooperating in Angola-Namibia talks stem primarily from Cuba's deployment in 1988 of an estimated 15,000 soldiers along the Angolan Namibian boarder. Their deployment shifted the region's strategic balance, causing the South African military deep consternation while fueling the debate at home in South Africa over the wisdom of costly military adventures hundreds of miles away. If South Africa's violence against the region continues, Moscow's hand may be strengthened. For instance, in 1987 the Zimbabwean government made inquiries into the possibility of purchasing MiG-29 fighter planes. The British immediately made serious counter proposals, and the prospect of a turn to the Soviets faded. (14:66) This points out the willingness of Front Line States to seek protection in the face of South African threat. A discussion of Soviet opportunities for expanding their influence in the area would be incomplete without including a discussion of the African National Congress (A.N.C.). The African National Congress is the oldest and most influential rebel movement, whose record of opposition to official racism dates back some 75 years. Banned in 1960 after generations of nonviolent activism, the group launched a campaign of armed resistance to apartheid from headquarters within South Africa, and then from exile in Zambia and Tanzania. The A.N.C. leader Nelson Mandela, jailed since 1962, has become a political celebrity of almost mythic scale. The A.N.C. is now governed by an interracial National Executive Committee of 30 men and women. (13:22) The United States has shunned any formal contacts with the A.N.C. because of its long standing ties to the banned South African Communist Party. However, as the extent of the A.N.C.'s following in South Africa grows, the U.S. Government has begun to encourage direct negotiations between the rebel group and the Pretoria Government. (9:3) To the white South African Government, the A.N.C. is seen as part of a Communist-inspired movement to completely overthrow white rule. Therefore, any dialogue with the A.N.C. is out of the question. There are differences of opinion in the literature over the extent of Communist influence in the A.N.C. David Roberts, Jr., a free-lance writer and a student of South African affairs, presents evidence in a July 1988 issue of Commentary that, in his opinion, the A.N.C. "...is driven by a commitment to Leninist ideology that goes far beyond mere rhetoric and by political intentions that are concomitantly totalitarian. "(10:31) On the other hand, Thomas G. Karis, professor emeritus at the City University of New York, and a leading expert on black politics in South Africa emphasizes the serious discussion within the A.N.C. in support of a deeply entrenched bill of rights for individuals, including the right to strike, an independent judicary, a multiparty system, and a mixed economy. Professor Karis does categorize the A.N.C. as pro-Soviet but sees this as a "crude characterization" because it "...imputes unthinking motives to a national movement whose pragmatic search for international support is as wide-ranging as its non-doctrinaire search for white and black allies within South Africa." (6:12) The A.N.C. can also be labeled pro-Western since it seeks and receives support from Western governments and organizations, including such anti-Soviet organizations as the Socialist International. Following the recent peace agreement between Angola, South Africa and Cuba, the A.N.C. has suffered a support set back. Financial support from the Soviet Union has been reduced and refuge in Angola was discontinued as part of the agreement. Although this weakens the A.N.C.'s support, it opens the door for the United States to warm up the now cold-shoulder relationship between itself and the A.N.C. which is due to the overt U.S. support for the South African apartheid regime. COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS The practice of apartheid and destabilization cannot be separated into two distinct entities, but for the sake of clarity, lets leave the concept of destabilization and focus on apartheid in South Africa, current U.S. economic policy, and the feasibility of comprehensive economic sanctions. Constructive engagement was a U.S. offering of incentives to South Africa to institute meaningful change in this peculiar institution of neoslavery built on severe racial segregation. These attempts to encourage reform by working within South Africa's system simply haven't worked. For more than a century, foreign economic interests have profited from and bolstered the South African system of white domination. Yet, in the last decade, in response to internal unrest and the international divestment movement, U.S. corporations and Washington officials have argued that economic involvement can actually accelerate the process of reform; that they should stay and use their influence as a positive force for change. But the improvement they point to in working conditions and housing for a small minority of black South Africans have done nothing to end apartheid. In fact, between 1960 and 1980, while U.S. investment increased, Pretoria consolidated its apartheid policies, and forcibly removed over 3.5 million Blacks to impoverished homelands.(11:2) According to a Washington Post article on November 13, 1988, in spite of the Pretoria government's cautious efforts at racial reforms, the extreme right-wing Conservative Party is insisting on a reversal of reforms and a return to the comprehensive, 1950's-style apartheid laws. In the May 1987 national whites-only election, the Conservative Party won 23 seats and became the official opposition party in the 178-seat white chamber. (2:34-A) Thus, the citizens of South Africa appear to be saying to the United States and to the world, "no deal." The ultimate motivation for apartheid, like most forms of oppression, is greed. Removing the profit motive through a decisive weakening of the present system is considered by many the only possible external influence to force change. Those who argue that sanctions won't bring down apartheid are right; they were never intended to do so. Effective economic sanctions would simply end American economic support for apartheid thereby contributing significantly to weakening the regime and shortening the time of strife before a negotiated settlement. The political issues will be decided by South Africans, either at the negotiating table or through violent upheaval. The U.S. acting alone has already had a major effect on the South African economy. U.S. banks, for example, triggered the debt crisis of August 1985. The U.S. is South Africa's leading trading partner, and plays a strategic role in the supply of products such as computers, electronic equipment, aircraft and machinery. The U.S. is also the second leading investor in South Africa, with an estimated $10 billion in direct and indirect investment.(11:4) There is a possibility that the U.S. share of investment and trade would be replaced by European or Japanese firms should the U.S. pull completely out. But South Africa's other major economic partners are also under domestic pressure to take strong action. If the U.S. acted, it would increase that pressure on other governments. For example, when the U.S. tightened restrictions on computer exports to South Africa in 1985 the Japanese announced they were taking similar action. (11:6) If general economic sanctions were imposed by the U.N. Security Council and effectively enforced, South Africa would be in serious trouble. First, in 1980, imported oil provided 90 percent of South Africa's liquid fuel requirements. Efforts to reduce consumption and build refineries has reduced their level of dependence, but in the absence of discovery of natural oil inside South Africa, the country will continue to be dependent on imported oil. This would result in severe damage to the transportation, mining and agricultural industries. (12:238) South Africa is also dependent on imported machinery and advanced technological equipment. Although efforts to substitute local products has been intensified, the cutting off of supplies would create difficulties. The country would also suffer from the loss of her export markets. Arnt Spandau of the University of the Witwartersrand has estimated that a 20 percent reduction of South Africa's exports would cost the country about $3 billion a year. This would also exacerbate the already serious unemployment problem, especially among Blacks, with serious consequences in terms of social unrest. (12:239) These projections, however, are based upon the assumption that sanctions would not merely be voted by the UN Security Council, but that they would be effectively enforced. This is highly unlikely. For instance, South Africa has had little difficulty buying oil, though at high prices, despite the oil embargo declared by the OPEC countries. Also, the 1986 Anti-Apartheid Act of the United States, though a step in the right direction, was considered by anti-apartheid activist to have many loopholes which have been exploited to the benefit of South Africa. (5:13) South Africa would probably develop a system of sanctions-busting, with some support from Western industrial states and even several African states. Tanzania and Angola are the only two members of the Southern African Development Coordination Conference (SADCC) that are totally committed to sanctions in practice. The remaining members benefit from sanctions evasion (relocation of firms like Coca-Cola who have divested from South Africa; relabelling of produce of South African origin, etc.). (7:389) In the long run, however, comprehensive economic sanctions will eventually force the South African government to the negotiating table. CONCLUSION The baby in the bath water is spoiled. And like a baby, it fails to understand the consequences of its self-gratifying actions. In 1986, President Reagan said, "Time is running out for the moderates of all races in South Africa." (9:5) He is correct. And make no mistake about it, youths committed to violent overthrow are increasing in age and number. Our own recent history has shown us that military strength alone cannot suppress the will of a people indefinitely. The United states has an obligation to take a mature, realistic approach to this problem, protect itself from import vulnerability and seize opportunities to truly promote democracy in the region. My intention has been to show that current U.S. policy in southern Africa, though well-intentioned, is flawed. The underlying thoughts I asked the reader to keep in mind was not an attempt to judge America, but an attempt to highlight what I feel are real motivating factors behind our levels of commitment as a nation. The United States has overcome more obstacles to freedom quicker than any nation in history. It is because of this history that we owe the citizens of this country, if not the world, a foreign policy that is consistent, sound, and devoted to human rights for all, regardless of race, creed, or the color of the baby in the bath water. BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Anzovin, Steven, ed. South Afflca: Apartheid and Divestiture. The H.W. Wilson Company, New York 1987. 2. Claiborne, William T., "S. 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